Tim Tanggap COVID-19 Imperial College
Tim Respons COVID-19 Imperial College (Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - ICCRT) adalah tim penasihat dan sains yang dibuat oleh Imperial College London untuk mempelajari penyakit koronavirus 2019 dan menasihati pemerintah Britania Raya.[1] Laporan pertamanya diterbitkan pada tanggal 17 Januari 2020. Tim ini dipimpin oleh Neil Ferguson.[2]
Laporan
Nomor | Tanggal | Judul |
---|---|---|
16 | 2020-04-23 | Role of testing in COVID-19 control |
The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines. | ||
15 | 2020-04-17 | Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic |
Reports presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals". | ||
14 | 2020-04-03 | Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective |
13 | 2020-03-30 | Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries |
12 | 2020-03-26 | The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression |
11 | 2020-03-24 | Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment |
10 | 2020-03-20 | Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17-18 March 2020 |
9 | 2020-03-16 | Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand |
8 | 2020-03-11 | Symptom progression of COVID-19 |
7 | 2020-03-09 | Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights |
6 | 2020-02-21 | Relative sensitivity of international surveillance |
5 | 2020-02-15 | Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 |
4 | 2020-02-10 | Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) |
3 | 2020-01-25 | Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV |
2 | 2020-01-22 | Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China |
1 | 2020-01-17 | Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China |
Estimasi
Estimasi untuk 11 negara Eropa per 28 Maret 2020
Jumlah populasi yang terinfeksi | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediksi ICCRT[3] | Penghitungan WHO per 29 Maret | |||||
Negara | Populasi[butuh rujukan] | Terinfeksi (95% range) | Terinfeksi (rerata %) | Kasus (est.) | Kasus | Terdekteksi (% pop.) |
Austria | 8,999,973 | 0.36%-3.1% | 1.1% | 99000 | 8291 | 0.09% |
Belgia | 11,579,502 | 1.3%-9.7% | 3.7% | 428400 | 9134 | 0.08% |
Denmark | 5,785,741 | 0.40%-3.1% | 1.1% | 63600 | 2201 | 0.04% |
Prancis | 65,227,357 | 1.1%-7.4% | 3.0% | 1956800 | 37145 | 0.06% |
Jerman | 83,792,987 | 0.28%-1.8% | 0.72% | 603300 | 52547 | 0.06% |
Italia | 60,496,082 | 3.2%-26% | 9.8% | 5928600 | 92472 | 0.15% |
Norwegia | 5,407,670 | 0.09%-1.2% | 0.41% | 22200 | 3845 | 0.07% |
Spanyol | 46,767,543 | 3.7%-41% | 15% | 7015100 | 72248 | 0.15% |
Swedia | 10,081,948 | 0.85%-8.4% | 3.1% | 312500 | 3447 | 0.03% |
Swiss | 8,637,694 | 1.3%-7.6% | 3.2% | 276400 | 13152 | 0.15% |
Britania Raya | 67,803,450 | 1.2%-5.4% | 2.7% | 1830700 | 17093 | 0.03% |
Estimasi untuk dunia
Perkiraan dampak strategi pengendalian selama 250 hari dengan 3 skenario berbeda.[4]
- Tidak terkendali
- Terkendali dengan 0.2 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu
- Terkendali dengan 1.6 kematian per 100.000 kasus per minggu
Skenario #1 | Skenario #2 | Skenario #3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infeksi | Kematian | Infeksi | Kematian | Infeksi | Kematian | |
Asia Timur & Tenggara | 2.117.131.000 | 15.303.000 | 92.544.000 | 442.000 | 632.619.000 | 3.315.000 |
Asia Selatan | 1.737.766.000 | 7.687.000 | 111.703.000 | 475.000 | 629.164.000 | 2.693.000 |
Eropa & Asia Tengah | 801.770.000 | 7.276.000 | 61.578.000 | 279.000 | 257.706.000 | 1.397.000 |
Amerika Utara | 326.079.000 | 2.981.000 | 17.730.000 | 92.000 | 90.529.000 | 520.000 |
Amerika Selatan & Karibia | 566.993.000 | 3.194.000 | 45.346.000 | 158.000 | 186.595.000 | 729.000 |
Timur Tengah & Afrika Utara | 419.138.000 | 1.700.000 | 30.459.000 | 113.000 | 152.262.000 | 594.000 |
Afrika | 1.044.858.000 | 2.483.000 | 110.164.000 | 298.000 | 454.968.000 | 1.204.000 |
Total | 7.013.734.000 | 40.624.000 | 469.523.000 | 1.858.000 | 2.403.843.000 | 10.452.000 |
Lihat pula
- Neil Ferguson (epidemiologis)
Referensi
- ^ Landler, Mark; Castle, Stephen (2020-03-17). "Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action". The New York Times (dalam bahasa Inggris). ISSN 0362-4331. Diakses tanggal 2020-03-30.
- ^ Adam, David (2020). "Special report: The simulations driving the world's response to COVID-19". Nature. 580 (7803): 316–318. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01003-6. PMID 32242115.
- ^ Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team (2020-03-30). "Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" (PDF). hlm. 35.
- ^ "Report 12 - The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression". Imperial College London (dalam bahasa Inggris). Diakses tanggal 2020-04-04.
Pranala luar
- COVID-19 Response Team Reports