Singularitas teknologi
Singularitas teknologi, atau singularitas, adalah suatu masa ketika kecerdasan buatan berkembang jauh sehingga melampaui kecerdasan manusia dan mengubah peradaban dan umat manusia.[1] Karena kemampuan kecerdasan semacam itu sulit untuk dipahami manusia, singularitas teknologi sering dipandang sebagai peristiwa (mirip singularitas gravitasi) yang setelahnya masa depan umat manusia tak dapat diprediksi atau bahkan tak dapat diukur.
Istilah "singularitas" dalam konteks ini pertama kali digunakan oleh matematikawan John von Neumann. Pada tahun 1958, mengenai ringkasan percakapan dengan von Neumann, Stanislaw Ulam menjelaskan "percepatan kemajuan teknologi dan perubahan mode kehidupan manusia, yang seolah-olah mendekati singularitas dalam sejarah ras di luar manusia, tidak bisa dilanjutkan lagi".[2] Istilah ini dipopulerkan oleh penulis fiksi ilmiah Vernon Vinge yang berpendapat bahwa kecerdasan buatan, pemutakhiran biologis manusia, atau antarmuka otak-komputer bisa jadi penyebab potensial singularitas.[3] Futuris Ray Kurzweil mengutip penggunaan istilah ini oleh von Neumann dalam kata pengantar karya klasik von Neumann, The Computer and the Brain.
Pendukung singularitas biasanya menyebut "ledakan kecerdasan",[4][5] yaitu masa ketika kecerdasan super (superintelligence) merancang generasi pemikir yang semakin kuat dan dapat terjadi sangat cepat dan mungkin tidak akan berhenti sampai kemampuan kognitif generasi atau agen tersebut melampaui manusia manapun di Bumi.
Kurzweil memprediksikan singularitas akan terjadi sekitar tahun 2045,[6] sedangkan Vinge memperkirakan ini terjadi sebelum 2030.[7] Pada Singularity Summit tahun 2012, Stuart Armstrong melakukan studi prediksi kecerdasan umum buatan (artificial generalized intelligence) oleh para pakar dan menemukan berbagai macam tahun perkiraan yang rata-rata bertengger di angka 2040. Prediksinya sendiri adalah terdapat 80% kemungkinan bahwa singularitas akan terjadi antara 2017 dan 2112.[8]
Lihat pula
- Strong AI, kecerdasan buatan hipotetis yang menyamai atau melebihi kecerdasan manusia
- Eskatologi
- Eksokorteks
- Omega Point
- Singularitarianisme
- Hipotesis transensi
- Determinisme teknologi
- Revolusi teknologi
- Teori kebaruan
Catatan kaki
- ^ Eden, Amnon; Moor, James; Søraker, Johnny; Steinhart, Eric, ed. (2013). Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment. Springer. hlm. 1. Pemeliharaan CS1: Tampilkan editors (link)
- ^ Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958). "Tribute to John von Neumann". 64, #3, part 2. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society: 5.
- ^ Vinge, Vernor. "Vernor Vinge on the Singularity". San Diego State University. Diakses tanggal 11 April 2013.
- ^ David Chalmers on Singularity, Intelligence Explosion. April 8th, 2010. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence: http://singinst.org/blog/2010/04/08/david-chalmers-on-singularity-intelligence-explosion/ Diarsipkan 2012-04-21 di Wayback Machine.
- ^ Editor's Blog Why an Intelligence Explosion is Probable By: Richard Loosemore and Ben Goertzel. March 7, 2011; hplusmagazine: http://hplusmagazine.com/2011/03/07/why-an-intelligence-explosion-is-probable/
- ^ Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005.
- ^ Vinge, Vernor. "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era", originally in Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace, G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993
- ^ Armstrong, Stuart. "How We're Predicting AI" Diarsipkan 2014-10-31 di Wayback Machine., from the 2012 Singularity Conference
Referensi
- Acceleration Studies Foundation (2007), ASF: About the Foundation, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2008-12-26, diakses tanggal 2007-11-13
- Anonymous (18 March 2006), "More blades good", The Economist, London, 378 (8469), hlm. 85
- Bell, James John (2002), Technotopia and the Death of Nature: Clones, Supercomputers, and Robots, Earth Island Journal (first published in the November/December 2001 issue of the Earth First! Journal), diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Bell, James John (1 May 2003), "Exploring The "Singularity"", The Futurist, World Future Society (mindfully.org), diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2007-08-10, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Berglas, Anthony (2008), Artificial Intelligence will Kill our Grandchildren, diakses tanggal 2008-06-13
- Broderick, Damien (2001), The Spike: How Our Lives Are Being Transformed by Rapidly Advancing Technologies, New York: Forge, ISBN 0-312-87781-1
- Bostrom, Nick (2002), "Existential Risks", Journal of Evolution and Technology, 9, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Bostrom, Nick (2003), "Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence", Cognitive, Emotive and Ethical Aspects of Decision Making in Humans and in Artificial Intelligence, 2: 12–17, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Dreyfus, Hubert L.; Dreyfus, Stuart E. (1 March 2000), Mind over Machine: The Power of Human Intuition and Expertise in the Era of the Computer (edisi ke-1), New York: Free Press, ISBN 0-7432-0551-0
- Ford, Martin (2009), The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, CreateSpace, ISBN 978-1-4486-5981-4.
- Good, I. J. (1965), Franz L. Alt and Morris Rubinoff, ed., "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine", Advances in Computers, Advances in Computers, Academic Press, 6: 31–88, doi:10.1016/S0065-2458(08)60418-0, ISBN 9780120121069, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2001-05-27, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07 Pemeliharaan CS1: Menggunakan parameter penyunting (link)
- Hanson, Robin (1998), Some Skepticism, Robin Hanson, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2009-08-28, diakses tanggal 2009-06-19
- Hanson, Robin (June 2008), "Economics of the Singularity", IEEE Spectrum
- Hawking, Stephen (1998), Science in the Next Millennium: Remarks by Stephen Hawking, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2009-06-29, diakses tanggal 2007-11-13
- Hawkins, Gerald S. (August 1983), Mindsteps to the Cosmos, HarperCollins, ISBN 0-06-015156-0
- Heylighen, Francis (2007), "Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: from ephemeralization and stigmergy to the global brain" (PDF), dalam Modelski, G.; Devezas, T.; Thompson, W., Globalization as an Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change, London: Routledge, ISBN 978-0-415-77361-4
- Johansen, Anders; Sornette, Didier (25 January 2001), "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices" (PDF), Physica A, 294 (3–4), hlm. 465–502, arXiv:cond-mat/0002075
, Bibcode:2001PhyA..294..465J, doi:10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00105-4, diarsipkan dari versi asli (PDF) tanggal 2007-11-29, diakses tanggal 2007-10-30 - Joy, Bill (April 2000), "Why the future doesn't need us", Wired Magazine, Viking Adult (8.04), ISBN 0-670-03249-2, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Kurzweil, Raymond (2001), "The Law of Accelerating Returns", Nature Physics, Lifeboat Foundation, 4 (7): 507, Bibcode:2008NatPh...4..507B, doi:10.1038/nphys1010, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Kurzweil, Raymond (2005), The Singularity Is Near, New York: Viking, ISBN 0-670-03384-7
- Moravec, Hans (January 1992), "Pigs in Cyberspace", On the Cosmology and Ecology of Cyberspace, diakses tanggal 2007-11-21
- Schmidhuber, Jürgen (29 June 2006). "New Millennium AI and the Convergence of History". arΧiv:cs/0606081 [cs.AI].
- Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2002), Why Artificial Intelligence? Templat:Waybackurl=http://www.singinst.org/intro/whyAI-print.html
- Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2004), 3 Laws Unsafe, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2007), What is the Singularity?, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2007-12-30, diakses tanggal 2008-01-04
- Smart, John (September 2005), On Huebner Innovation, Acceleration Studies Foundation, diarsipkan dari versi asli tanggal 2006-06-16, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07
- Ulam, Stanislaw (May 1958), "Tribute to John von Neumann", Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, 64 (nr 3, part 2): 1–49, doi:10.1090/S0002-9904-1958-10189-5
- Vinge, Vernor (30–31 March 1993), "The Coming Technological Singularity", Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science & Engineering in the Era of CyberSpace, proceedings of a Symposium held at NASA Lewis Research Center, NASA Conference Publication CP-10129, diakses tanggal 2007-08-07 . See also this HTML version, retrieved on 2009-03-29.
- Warwick, Kevin (2004), March of The Machines, University of Illinois Press, ISBN 978-0-252-07223-9
Pranala luar
- Singularity-related research links, from Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity is Near
Esai dan artikel
- Singularities and Nightmares: Extremes of Optimism and Pessimism About the Human Future by David Brin
- A Critical Discussion of Vinge’s Singularity Concept by Robin Hanson
- Is a singularity just around the corner by Robin Hanson
- Brief History of Intellectual Discussion of Accelerating Change by John Smart
- One Half of a Manifesto Diarsipkan 2008-12-25 di Wayback Machine. by Jaron Lanier – a critique of "cybernetic totalism"
- One Half of an Argument Diarsipkan 2010-06-13 di Wayback Machine. – Ray Kurzweil's response to Lanier
- A discussion of Kurzweil, Turkel and Lanier by Roger Berkowitz
- The Singularity Is Always Near by Kevin Kelly
- The Maes-Garreau Point by Kevin Kelly
- "The Singularity – A Philosophical Analysis" by David Chalmers
- 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal Diarsipkan 2013-08-24 di Wayback Machine., By Lev Grossman, time.com, Feb. 10, 2011.
Pranala lain
- Report on The Stanford Singularity Summit
- An IEEE report on the Singularity. Diarsipkan 2012-11-02 di Wayback Machine.
- March 2007 Congressional Report on the SingularityAlternate Link
Templat:Teknologi baru
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